Perth and Kinross-shire
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth and Kinross-shire | 36.8% | 25.8% | 16.8% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+33.9 | 20.4%+5.3 | 23.1%−6.3 | 10.3%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
|---|
Current member
Pete Wishart · SNP
Previous election (2024)
The SNP won by 8.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 11.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Wishart Elected | SNP | 18,928 | 37.8 |
| Luke Graham | Conservative | 14,801 | 29.6 |
| Graham Cox | Labour | 9,018 | 18.0 |
| Amanda Clark | Lib Dems | 3,681 | 7.4 |
| Helen McDade | Reform UK | 2,970 | 5.9 |
| Sally Hughes | Other | 679 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP, safe seat
- Dunfermline and Dollar SNP, competitive
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Dundee Central SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated