Ribble Valley
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ribble Valley | 29.0% | 27.0% | 24.4% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.6 | 23.1%+3.9 | 24.3%+0.2 | 10.3%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,739 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 81.6% |
Current member
Maya Ellis · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maya Ellis Elected | Labour | 18,177 | 34.9 |
| Nigel Evans | Conservative | 17,321 | 33.3 |
| John Carroll | Reform UK | 8,524 | 16.4 |
| John Potter | Lib Dems | 5,001 | 9.6 |
| Caroline Montague | Green | 1,727 | 3.3 |
| Qasim Ajmi | Other | 1,273 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackburn Other, safe seat
- Hyndburn Reform UK, toss-up
- Chorley Other, safe seat
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Pendle and Clitheroe Reform UK, toss-up
- Preston Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated