Bury South
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury South | 34.4% | 25.5% | 20.5% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.1 | 23.1%+2.4 | 20.4%+0.1 | 10.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,760 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 64.6% |
Current member
Christian Wakeford · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wakeford Elected | Labour | 19,247 | 45.6 |
| Arnie Saunders | Conservative | 9,886 | 23.4 |
| Jeff Armstrong | Reform UK | 6,865 | 16.3 |
| Michael Welton | Green | 2,715 | 6.4 |
| Andrew Page | Lib Dems | 1,796 | 4.3 |
| Sameera Ashraf | Other | 1,023 | 2.4 |
| Michael Elston | Other | 277 | 0.7 |
| Stephen Morris | Other | 224 | 0.5 |
| Dan Ross | Other | 181 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Salford Labour, safe seat
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
- Bolton South and Walkden Labour, toss-up
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated