Tatton
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatton | 36.0% | 26.9% | 19.3% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.6 | 24.3%+2.6 | 23.1%−3.8 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,238 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 88.8% |
Current member
Esther McVey · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esther McVey Elected | Conservative | 19,956 | 38.4 |
| Ryan Jude | Labour | 18,820 | 36.3 |
| Oliver Speakman | Reform UK | 5,948 | 11.5 |
| Jonathan Smith | Lib Dems | 4,614 | 8.9 |
| Nigel Hennerley | Green | 2,571 | 5.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Altrincham and Sale West Labour, toss-up
- Mid Cheshire Labour, toss-up
- Congleton Conservative, toss-up
- Stretford and Urmston Labour, safe seat
- Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour, safe seat
- Warrington South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated