Warrington South
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrington South | 36.7% | 23.6% | 21.6% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.4 | 23.1%+0.6 | 20.4%+1.2 | 10.4%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,699 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 78.0% |
Current member
Sarah Hall · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Hall Elected | Labour | 23,201 | 46.7 |
| Andy Carter | Conservative | 11,861 | 23.9 |
| Janet Balfe | Reform UK | 7,913 | 15.9 |
| Graham Gowland | Lib Dems | 3,829 | 7.7 |
| Stephanie Davies | Green | 2,313 | 4.7 |
| Peter Willett | Other | 445 | 0.9 |
| Graeme Kelly | Other | 110 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Warrington North Labour, toss-up
- Leigh and Atherton Labour, toss-up
- St Helens North Labour, safe seat
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- St Helens South and Whiston Labour, safe seat
- Mid Cheshire Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated