North Herefordshire
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Green | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Herefordshire | 39.8% | 27.2% | 24.0% | 4.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.4%+29.4 | 20.4%+6.8 | 23.1%+1.0 | 24.3%−19.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,362 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 74.5% |
Current member
Dr Ellie Chowns · Green
Previous election (2024)
The Green Party won by 11.7 points.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 12.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Chowns Elected | Green | 21,736 | 43.2 |
| Bill Wiggin | Conservative | 15,842 | 31.5 |
| Andrew Dye | Reform UK | 8,048 | 16.0 |
| Jon Browning | Labour | 3,205 | 6.4 |
| Cat Hornsey | Lib Dems | 1,436 | 2.9 |
| Michael Guest | Other | 95 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative, toss-up
- South Shropshire Conservative, toss-up
- Forest of Dean Reform UK, toss-up
- West Worcestershire Conservative, safe seat
- Wyre Forest Reform UK, toss-up
- Worcester Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated