Hereford and South Herefordshire
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford and South Herefordshire | 29.2% | 27.2% | 20.2% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.8 | 23.1%+4.2 | 24.3%−4.0 | 10.4%+0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,357 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 80.7% |
Current member
Jesse Norman · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Norman Elected | Conservative | 14,871 | 32.6 |
| Joe Emmett | Labour | 13,592 | 29.8 |
| Nigel Ely | Reform UK | 8,395 | 18.4 |
| Dan Powell | Lib Dems | 5,325 | 11.7 |
| Diana Toynbee | Green | 3,175 | 7.0 |
| Mark Weaden | Other | 214 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Herefordshire Green, safe seat
- Forest of Dean Reform UK, toss-up
- Torfaen Reform UK, toss-up
- Newport East Labour, toss-up
- Monmouthshire Conservative, safe seat
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated