Forest of Dean
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 54% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest of Dean | 28.7% | 28.5% | 23.0% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.6 | 20.4%+8.1 | 24.3%−1.3 | 10.4%+2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,621 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 86.0% |
Current member
Matt Bishop · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Bishop Elected | Labour | 16,373 | 34.1 |
| Mark Harper | Conservative | 16,095 | 33.5 |
| Stan Goodin | Reform UK | 8,194 | 17.0 |
| Chris McFarling | Green | 4,735 | 9.9 |
| James Joyce | Lib Dems | 2,604 | 5.4 |
| Saiham Sikder | Other | 90 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stroud Labour, safe seat
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- South Cotswolds Lib Dems, safe seat
- Thornbury and Yate Lib Dems, competitive
- Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated