West Worcestershire
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Worcestershire | 32.6% | 21.9% | 21.4% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.2 | 10.3%+11.6 | 23.1%−1.7 | 10.4%+1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,828 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 76.3% |
Current member
Dame Harriett Baldwin · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 12.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harriett Baldwin Elected | Conservative | 19,783 | 36.2 |
| Dan Boatright-Greene | Lib Dems | 13,236 | 24.2 |
| Kash Haroon | Labour | 8,335 | 15.2 |
| Christopher Edmondson | Reform UK | 7,902 | 14.4 |
| Natalie McVey | Green | 5,068 | 9.3 |
| Seonaid Barber | Other | 363 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Worcester Labour, toss-up
- Wyre Forest Reform UK, toss-up
- Droitwich and Evesham Conservative, safe seat
- Redditch Reform UK, toss-up
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- Tewkesbury Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated