Tewkesbury
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tewkesbury | 38.6% | 24.5% | 21.1% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+28.3 | 20.4%+4.1 | 23.1%−1.9 | 10.4%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,711 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 84.4% |
Current member
Cameron Thomas · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 12.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 14.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Thomas Elected | Lib Dems | 20,730 | 42.7 |
| Laurence Robertson | Conservative | 14,468 | 29.8 |
| Byron Davis | Reform UK | 6,000 | 12.4 |
| Damola Animashaun | Labour | 4,298 | 8.9 |
| Cate Cody | Green | 2,873 | 5.9 |
| David Edgar | Other | 170 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cheltenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- North Cotswolds Conservative, toss-up
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- Droitwich and Evesham Conservative, safe seat
- Worcester Labour, toss-up
- Redditch Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated