North Cotswolds
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 41%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cotswolds | 31.1% | 25.7% | 20.7% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.7 | 10.3%+15.4 | 23.1%−2.4 | 24.3%−13.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,105 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 80.3% |
Current member
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 5.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Elected | Conservative | 17,426 | 34.7 |
| Paul Hodgkinson | Lib Dems | 14,069 | 28.0 |
| Anna Mainwaring | Labour | 8,593 | 17.1 |
| Jason Preece | Reform UK | 6,502 | 12.9 |
| Chloe Turner | Green | 3,191 | 6.4 |
| Jean Blackbeard | Other | 448 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cheltenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Tewkesbury Lib Dems, safe seat
- Gloucester Reform UK, toss-up
- Swindon North Reform UK, toss-up
- Droitwich and Evesham Conservative, safe seat
- Swindon South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated