Derbyshire Dales
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 63%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derbyshire Dales | 29.8% | 25.2% | 23.0% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.4 | 23.1%+2.1 | 24.3%−1.2 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 90,430 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 73.8% |
Current member
John Whitby · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Whitby Elected | Labour | 17,759 | 34.6 |
| Sarah Dines | Conservative | 17,409 | 34.0 |
| Edward Oakenfull | Reform UK | 7,728 | 15.1 |
| Robert Court | Lib Dems | 4,860 | 9.5 |
| Kelda Boothroyd | Green | 2,830 | 5.5 |
| Rachel Elnaugh-Love | Other | 369 | 0.7 |
| Helen Wetherall | Other | 317 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Burton and Uttoxeter Reform UK, toss-up
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- Staffordshire Moorlands Reform UK, toss-up
- Derby North Labour, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated