Derby North
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 65%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby North | 32.2% | 27.7% | 21.0% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.9 | 23.1%+4.6 | 20.4%+0.6 | 10.4%+2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,362 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 75.0% |
Current member
Catherine Atkinson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Atkinson Elected | Labour | 18,619 | 45.5 |
| Amanda Solloway | Conservative | 9,704 | 23.7 |
| Tim Prosser | Reform UK | 7,488 | 18.3 |
| Helen Hitchcock | Green | 3,286 | 8.0 |
| John Sweeney | Lib Dems | 1,822 | 4.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- South Derbyshire Reform UK, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Leicestershire Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated