South Derbyshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 85%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Derbyshire | 30.0% | 26.6% | 25.8% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.0 | 24.3%+2.4 | 20.4%+5.4 | 10.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,868 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 79.7% |
Current member
Samantha Niblett · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha Niblett Elected | Labour | 17,734 | 38.8 |
| Heather Wheeler | Conservative | 13,566 | 29.7 |
| Job West | Reform UK | 8,979 | 19.6 |
| Lucy Care | Lib Dems | 2,134 | 4.7 |
| Aruhan Galieva | Green | 1,941 | 4.2 |
| Amy Wheelton | Other | 1,200 | 2.6 |
| Paul Liversuch | Other | 183 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- Derby North Labour, toss-up
- North West Leicestershire Reform UK, toss-up
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative, toss-up
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated