Mid Derbyshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Derbyshire | 29.0% | 26.9% | 24.5% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.6 | 23.1%+3.8 | 24.3%+0.2 | 10.4%+1.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 88,007 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 71.8% |
Current member
Jonathan Davies · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davies Elected | Labour | 17,346 | 36.5 |
| Luke Gardiner | Conservative | 15,468 | 32.5 |
| Stephen Dean | Reform UK | 8,356 | 17.6 |
| Gez Kinsella | Green | 3,547 | 7.5 |
| Barry Holliday | Lib Dems | 2,361 | 5.0 |
| Sue Warren | Other | 315 | 0.7 |
| Josiah Uche | Other | 150 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Derby North Labour, toss-up
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- South Derbyshire Reform UK, toss-up
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated