Derby South
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby South | 29.8% | 29.3% | 13.5% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.5 | 23.1%+6.3 | 20.4%−6.9 | 5.0%+7.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 119,588 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 73.1% |
Current member
Baggy Shanker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baggy Shanker Elected | Labour | 14,503 | 38.8 |
| Alan Graves | Reform UK | 8,501 | 22.7 |
| Chris Williamson | Other | 5,205 | 13.9 |
| Jamie Mulhall | Conservative | 5,192 | 13.9 |
| Sam Ward | Green | 1,899 | 5.1 |
| Joe Naitta | Lib Dems | 1,807 | 4.8 |
| Zephyr Tair | Other | 292 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Derby North Labour, toss-up
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- South Derbyshire Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Leicestershire Reform UK, toss-up
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated