Amber Valley
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber Valley | 38.4% | 23.9% | 22.1% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+15.4 | 24.3%−0.4 | 20.4%+1.7 | 10.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 90,793 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 77.6% |
Current member
Linsey Farnsworth · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 14.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linsey Farnsworth Elected | Labour | 15,746 | 37.0 |
| Alex Stevenson | Reform UK | 12,192 | 28.7 |
| Nigel Mills | Conservative | 10,725 | 25.2 |
| Matt McGuinness | Green | 2,278 | 5.4 |
| Kate Smith | Lib Dems | 1,590 | 3.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- Ashfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Derby North Labour, toss-up
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated