Erewash
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erewash | 30.8% | 28.5% | 22.7% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.8 | 24.3%+4.2 | 20.4%+2.3 | 10.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,351 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 85.4% |
Current member
Adam Thompson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thompson Elected | Labour | 17,224 | 40.1 |
| Maggie Throup | Conservative | 11,365 | 26.4 |
| Liam Booth-Isherwood | Reform UK | 9,162 | 21.3 |
| Brent Poland | Green | 2,478 | 5.8 |
| James Archer | Lib Dems | 2,426 | 5.6 |
| John Kirby | Other | 351 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- Mid Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated