Nottingham North and Kimberley
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 67%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham North and Kimberley | 34.6% | 30.3% | 16.5% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.3 | 23.1%+7.2 | 20.4%−3.9 | 10.4%+2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,805 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 69.8% |
Current member
Alex Norris · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Norris Elected | Labour | 16,480 | 47.1 |
| Golam Kadiri | Reform UK | 7,053 | 20.2 |
| Caroline Henry | Conservative | 6,787 | 19.4 |
| Sam Harvey | Green | 3,351 | 9.6 |
| David Schmitz | Lib Dems | 1,336 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- Ashfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Gedling Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated