Gedling
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gedling | 35.7% | 26.8% | 20.2% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.4 | 23.1%+3.8 | 20.4%−0.2 | 10.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,477 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 77.4% |
Current member
Michael Payne · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 24.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Payne Elected | Labour | 23,278 | 47.8 |
| Tom Randall | Conservative | 11,397 | 23.4 |
| Simon Christy | Reform UK | 8,211 | 16.9 |
| Dominic Berry | Green | 3,122 | 6.4 |
| Tad Jones | Lib Dems | 2,473 | 5.1 |
| Irenea Marriott | Other | 241 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
- Sherwood Forest Reform UK, safe seat
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
- Rushcliffe Labour, toss-up
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated