Rushcliffe
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 73%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushcliffe | 32.0% | 28.2% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.7 | 20.4%+7.8 | 23.1%−3.4 | 10.4%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,241 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 73.9% |
Current member
James Naish · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Naish Elected | Labour | 25,291 | 43.8 |
| Ruth Edwards | Conservative | 17,865 | 30.9 |
| James Grice | Reform UK | 6,353 | 11.0 |
| Richard Mallender | Green | 4,367 | 7.6 |
| Greg Webb | Lib Dems | 3,133 | 5.4 |
| Lynn Irving | Other | 549 | 1.0 |
| Harbant Sehra | Other | 186 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
- Gedling Labour, safe seat
- Loughborough Labour, toss-up
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated