Broxtowe
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 55%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broxtowe | 30.8% | 25.7% | 20.9% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.5 | 23.1%+2.6 | 20.4%+0.4 | 10.4%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,719 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 75.3% |
Current member
Juliet Campbell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 17.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juliet Campbell Elected | Labour | 19,561 | 40.9 |
| Darren Henry | Conservative | 11,158 | 23.3 |
| Joseph Oakley | Reform UK | 8,402 | 17.6 |
| James Collis | Lib Dems | 3,807 | 8.0 |
| Teresa Needham | Green | 3,488 | 7.3 |
| John Doddy | Other | 1,034 | 2.2 |
| Maqsood Syed | Other | 388 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
- Ashfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated