Ashfield
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashfield | 47.5% | 19.9% | 16.1% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+24.4 | 24.3%−4.4 | 5.0%+11.1 | 20.4%−12.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,883 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 71.7% |
Current member
Lee Anderson · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
Reform UK won by 13.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 27.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Anderson Elected | Reform UK | 17,062 | 42.8 |
| Rhea Keehn | Labour | 11,554 | 29.0 |
| Jason Zadrozny | Other | 6,276 | 15.7 |
| Debbie Soloman | Conservative | 3,271 | 8.2 |
| Alexander Coates | Green | 1,100 | 2.8 |
| Daniel Holmes | Lib Dems | 619 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bolsover Reform UK, toss-up
- Mansfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated