Mansfield
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | 34.2% | 26.5% | 25.3% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.1 | 24.3%+2.3 | 20.4%+4.9 | 10.4%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,514 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 68.5% |
Current member
Steve Yemm · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 7.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Yemm Elected | Labour | 16,048 | 39.1 |
| Ben Bradley | Conservative | 12,563 | 30.6 |
| Matthew Warnes | Reform UK | 9,385 | 22.8 |
| Phil Shields | Green | 1,326 | 3.2 |
| Michael Wyatt | Lib Dems | 799 | 1.9 |
| Peter Dean | Other | 423 | 1.0 |
| Wesley Milligan | Other | 335 | 0.8 |
| Karen Seymour | Other | 123 | 0.3 |
| Zen Bilas | Other | 85 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ashfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Sherwood Forest Reform UK, safe seat
- Bolsover Reform UK, toss-up
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Gedling Labour, safe seat
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated