Sherwood Forest
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sherwood Forest | 33.8% | 26.3% | 23.6% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.7 | 24.3%+2.1 | 20.4%+3.2 | 10.4%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,305 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 73.8% |
Current member
Michelle Welsh · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 7.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Welsh Elected | Labour | 18,841 | 38.7 |
| Mark Spencer | Conservative | 13,398 | 27.5 |
| Helen O'Hare | Reform UK | 11,320 | 23.3 |
| Sheila Greatrex-White | Green | 2,216 | 4.6 |
| David Dobbie | Lib Dems | 1,838 | 3.8 |
| Lee Waters | Other | 864 | 1.8 |
| Jeremy Spry | Other | 183 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gedling Labour, safe seat
- Mansfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Ashfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Nottingham South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated