Nottingham South
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham South | 37.1% | 23.0% | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.8 | 23.1%−0.1 | 20.4%−6.7 | 10.4%+3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,911 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 27 |
| Employment rate | 67.7% |
Current member
Lilian Greenwood · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 14.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lilian Greenwood Elected | Labour | 15,579 | 47.4 |
| Zarmeena Quraishi | Conservative | 5,285 | 16.1 |
| Mykel Hedge | Reform UK | 4,936 | 15.0 |
| Cath Sutherland | Green | 2,923 | 8.9 |
| Christina Morgan-Danvers | Lib Dems | 2,059 | 6.3 |
| Paras Ghazni | Other | 1,496 | 4.5 |
| Shaghofta Akhtar | Other | 449 | 1.4 |
| Mohammed Sayeed | Other | 152 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour, toss-up
- Nottingham East Labour, safe seat
- Broxtowe Labour, toss-up
- Rushcliffe Labour, toss-up
- Gedling Labour, safe seat
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated