Bolsover
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolsover | 32.3% | 29.1% | 21.1% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.3 | 24.3%+4.8 | 20.4%+0.7 | 10.4%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,967 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 74.9% |
Current member
Natalie Fleet · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Fleet Elected | Labour | 17,197 | 40.5 |
| Mark Fletcher | Conservative | 10,874 | 25.6 |
| Robert Reaney | Reform UK | 9,131 | 21.5 |
| David Kesteven | Green | 3,754 | 8.9 |
| David Hancock | Lib Dems | 1,478 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ashfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Chesterfield Labour, competitive
- North East Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- Mansfield Reform UK, safe seat
- Amber Valley Reform UK, safe seat
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated