Chesterfield
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 35.4% | 29.0% | 17.2% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.2 | 23.1%+5.9 | 20.4%−3.2 | 10.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,869 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 80.0% |
Current member
Mr Toby Perkins · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Perkins Elected | Labour | 19,316 | 46.5 |
| Ben Flook | Conservative | 8,496 | 20.4 |
| Dan Price | Reform UK | 7,897 | 19.0 |
| David Wadsworth | Green | 2,682 | 6.5 |
| Ian Barfield | Lib Dems | 2,553 | 6.1 |
| Kris Stone | Other | 363 | 0.9 |
| Julie Lowe | Other | 248 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North East Derbyshire Conservative, toss-up
- Bolsover Reform UK, toss-up
- Sheffield Heeley Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Central Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated