North East Derbyshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 46% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Derbyshire | 29.0% | 28.9% | 26.9% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.5 | 23.1%+5.8 | 24.3%+2.7 | 10.4%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,610 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 75.3% |
Current member
Louise Sandher-Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louise Jones Elected | Labour | 17,591 | 38.4 |
| Lee Rowley | Conservative | 15,838 | 34.5 |
| Andy Egginton | Reform UK | 7,899 | 17.2 |
| Frank Adlington-Stringer | Green | 2,271 | 5.0 |
| Ross Shipman | Lib Dems | 2,159 | 4.7 |
| Wesley Massumbukolt | Other | 108 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chesterfield Labour, competitive
- Sheffield Heeley Labour, safe seat
- Bolsover Reform UK, toss-up
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Central Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated