North West Leicestershire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West Leicestershire | 32.1% | 27.6% | 22.3% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.0 | 20.4%+7.2 | 24.3%−2.0 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,040 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 80.3% |
Current member
Amanda Hack · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Hack Elected | Labour | 16,871 | 34.7 |
| Craig Smith | Conservative | 15,859 | 32.6 |
| Noel Matthews | Reform UK | 9,678 | 19.9 |
| Carl Benfield | Green | 2,831 | 5.8 |
| Alice Delemare | Lib Dems | 1,629 | 3.4 |
| Andrew Bridgen | Other | 1,568 | 3.2 |
| Siobhan Dillon | Other | 136 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative, toss-up
- Derby South Labour, toss-up
- South Derbyshire Reform UK, toss-up
- Erewash Reform UK, toss-up
- Derby North Labour, toss-up
- Loughborough Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated