Hinckley and Bosworth
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 58%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hinckley and Bosworth | 31.2% | 26.5% | 22.3% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.8 | 23.1%+3.4 | 10.3%+12.0 | 24.3%−12.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,457 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 83.8% |
Current member
Dr Luke Evans · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evans Elected | Conservative | 17,032 | 35.6 |
| Michael Mullaney | Lib Dems | 11,624 | 24.3 |
| Peter Cheshire | Reform UK | 8,817 | 18.4 |
| Rebecca Pawley | Labour | 8,601 | 18.0 |
| Cassie Wells | Green | 1,514 | 3.2 |
| Harry Masters | Other | 211 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North West Leicestershire Reform UK, toss-up
- Nuneaton Reform UK, safe seat
- Mid Leicestershire Conservative, safe seat
- North Warwickshire and Bedworth Reform UK, safe seat
- South Derbyshire Reform UK, toss-up
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated