North Warwickshire and Bedworth
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Warwickshire and Bedworth | 36.6% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+13.6 | 20.4%+5.7 | 24.3%−0.7 | 10.4%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,314 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 75.1% |
Current member
Rachel Taylor · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Taylor Elected | Labour | 14,727 | 36.0 |
| Craig Tracey | Conservative | 12,529 | 30.6 |
| Paul Hopkins | Reform UK | 10,701 | 26.1 |
| Alison Wilson | Green | 1,755 | 4.3 |
| Guy Burchett | Lib Dems | 1,228 | 3.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nuneaton Reform UK, safe seat
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Tamworth Reform UK, safe seat
- Meriden and Solihull East Conservative, safe seat
- Sutton Coldfield Conservative, safe seat
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated