Coventry South
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry South | 36.4% | 21.6% | 20.9% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.1 | 23.1%−1.5 | 20.4%+0.5 | 10.4%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,435 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 30 |
| Employment rate | 68.1% |
Current member
Zarah Sultana · Other
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 14.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zarah Sultana Elected | Labour | 20,361 | 47.7 |
| Mattie Heaven | Conservative | 10,160 | 23.8 |
| Chris Baddon | Reform UK | 5,711 | 13.4 |
| Stephen Richmond | Lib Dems | 2,531 | 5.9 |
| Anne Patterson | Green | 2,363 | 5.5 |
| Mohammed Syed | Other | 777 | 1.8 |
| Alastair Mellon | Other | 334 | 0.8 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 263 | 0.6 |
| Joshua Morland | Other | 231 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
- Nuneaton Reform UK, safe seat
- Kenilworth and Southam Conservative, safe seat
- Rugby Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated