Kenilworth and Southam
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenilworth and Southam | 33.8% | 20.5% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.3 | 23.1%−2.6 | 10.3%+6.8 | 24.3%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,162 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 78.2% |
Current member
Sir Jeremy Wright · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 12.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 13.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Wright Elected | Conservative | 19,395 | 36.4 |
| Cat Price | Labour | 12,821 | 24.0 |
| Jenny Wilkinson | Lib Dems | 10,464 | 19.6 |
| Jacqui Harris | Reform UK | 6,920 | 13.0 |
| Alix Dearing | Green | 3,125 | 5.9 |
| Nick Green | Other | 442 | 0.8 |
| Paul De'Ath | Other | 153 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Rugby Labour, toss-up
- Stratford-on-Avon Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated