Rugby
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 42% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rugby | 27.5% | 26.8% | 26.6% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.2 | 23.1%+3.8 | 20.4%+6.2 | 10.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,196 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 81.6% |
Current member
John Slinger · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Slinger Elected | Labour | 19,533 | 39.9 |
| Yousef Dahmash | Conservative | 15,105 | 30.8 |
| Devenne Kedward | Reform UK | 8,225 | 16.8 |
| Richard Dickson | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 6.6 |
| Becca Stevenson | Green | 2,556 | 5.2 |
| Mark Townsend | Other | 215 | 0.4 |
| Anand Swayamprakasam | Other | 118 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Nuneaton Reform UK, safe seat
- Kenilworth and Southam Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated