Warwick and Leamington
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warwick and Leamington | 37.6% | 21.0% | 18.1% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.3 | 20.4%+0.6 | 23.1%−5.0 | 10.4%+3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,448 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 85.6% |
Current member
Matt Western · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 25.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 16.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Western Elected | Labour | 23,975 | 48.7 |
| James Uffindell | Conservative | 11,563 | 23.5 |
| Nigel Clarke | Reform UK | 5,154 | 10.5 |
| Hema Yellapragada | Green | 4,471 | 9.1 |
| Louis Adam | Lib Dems | 3,881 | 7.9 |
| Laurie Steele | Other | 154 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kenilworth and Southam Conservative, safe seat
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Rugby Labour, toss-up
- Meriden and Solihull East Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated