Coventry North West
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry North West | 35.7% | 26.7% | 18.0% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.4 | 23.1%+3.6 | 20.4%−2.4 | 10.4%+1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,006 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 72.3% |
Current member
Taiwo Owatemi · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwo Owatemi Elected | Labour | 19,696 | 46.9 |
| Tom Mercer | Conservative | 8,522 | 20.3 |
| Holly-Mae Nelson | Reform UK | 7,950 | 18.9 |
| Esther Reeves | Green | 3,420 | 8.1 |
| Tom Holder | Lib Dems | 1,931 | 4.6 |
| Elizabeth Richards | Other | 511 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Nuneaton Reform UK, safe seat
- Coventry East Labour, safe seat
- North Warwickshire and Bedworth Reform UK, safe seat
- Meriden and Solihull East Conservative, safe seat
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated