Coventry East
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry East | 36.7% | 27.6% | 15.0% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.4 | 23.1%+4.6 | 20.4%−5.4 | 10.4%+1.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 121,159 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 74.8% |
Current member
Mary Creagh · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Creagh Elected | Labour | 18,308 | 49.5 |
| Iddrisu Sufyan | Reform UK | 6,685 | 18.1 |
| Sarah Lesadd | Conservative | 6,240 | 16.9 |
| Stephen Gray | Green | 2,730 | 7.4 |
| Mike Massimi | Lib Dems | 1,227 | 3.3 |
| Paul Bedson | Other | 1,027 | 2.8 |
| Dave Nellist | Other | 797 | 2.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Coventry North West Labour, safe seat
- Rugby Labour, toss-up
- Nuneaton Reform UK, safe seat
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
- Kenilworth and Southam Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated