Stratford-on-Avon
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratford-on-Avon | 39.9% | 26.1% | 22.5% | 5.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+29.6 | 20.4%+5.7 | 23.1%−0.6 | 10.4%−5.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,528 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 82.6% |
Current member
Manuela Perteghella · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 13.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 13.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manuela Perteghella Elected | Lib Dems | 23,450 | 44.3 |
| Chris Clarkson | Conservative | 16,328 | 30.8 |
| James Crocker | Reform UK | 7,753 | 14.6 |
| Seyi Agboola | Labour | 3,753 | 7.1 |
| Doug Rouxel | Green | 1,197 | 2.3 |
| Kevin Taylor | Other | 292 | 0.6 |
| Neil O'Neil | Other | 186 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kenilworth and Southam Conservative, safe seat
- Meriden and Solihull East Conservative, safe seat
- Solihull West and Shirley Conservative, safe seat
- Warwick and Leamington Labour, safe seat
- Coventry South Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated