Birmingham Yardley
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Yardley | 25.3% | 24.6% | 22.1% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+1.0 | 23.1%+1.6 | 5.0%+17.2 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,295 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 65.2% |
Current member
Jess Phillips · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Phillips Elected | Labour | 11,275 | 31.2 |
| Jody McIntyre | Other | 10,582 | 29.3 |
| Nora Kamberi | Reform UK | 5,061 | 14.0 |
| Roger Harmer | Lib Dems | 3,634 | 10.1 |
| Yvonne Clements | Conservative | 3,634 | 10.1 |
| Roxanne Green | Green | 1,958 | 5.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform UK, competitive
- Solihull West and Shirley Conservative, safe seat
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- Sutton Coldfield Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated