Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.2 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Other | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | 26.5% | 26.1% | 14.9% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.2 | 5.0%+21.1 | 10.4%+4.5 | 23.1%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 118,220 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 66.9% |
Current member
Tahir Ali · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tahir Ali Elected | Labour | 12,798 | 30.8 |
| Shakeel Afsar | Other | 7,142 | 17.2 |
| Mohammed Hafeez | Other | 6,159 | 14.8 |
| Izzy Knowles | Lib Dems | 4,711 | 11.3 |
| Zain Ahmed | Green | 3,913 | 9.4 |
| Henry Morris | Conservative | 3,845 | 9.2 |
| Stephen McBrine | Reform UK | 2,305 | 5.5 |
| Babar Raja | Other | 733 | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Selly Oak Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
- Solihull West and Shirley Conservative, safe seat
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated