Birmingham Ladywood
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Other | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Ladywood | 35.2% | 24.3% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.9 | 5.0%+19.3 | 10.4%+5.5 | 23.1%−8.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 156,820 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 27 |
| Employment rate | 63.2% |
Current member
Shabana Mahmood · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood Elected | Labour | 15,558 | 42.5 |
| Akhmed Yakoob | Other | 12,137 | 33.2 |
| Zoe Challenor | Green | 3,478 | 9.5 |
| Shaz Muzammil | Conservative | 2,218 | 6.1 |
| Lee Dargue | Lib Dems | 1,711 | 4.7 |
| Irene Yoong-Henery | Reform UK | 1,477 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Perry Barr Other, safe seat
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Selly Oak Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated