Birmingham Edgbaston
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Edgbaston | 36.0% | 20.0% | 19.8% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.7 | 20.4%−0.5 | 23.1%−3.3 | 10.4%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,160 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 65.8% |
Current member
Preet Kaur Gill · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 15.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preet Gill Elected | Labour | 16,599 | 44.4 |
| Ashvir Sangha | Conservative | 8,231 | 22.0 |
| Joshua Mathews | Reform UK | 4,363 | 11.7 |
| Ammar Waraich | Other | 3,336 | 8.9 |
| Nicola Payne | Green | 2,797 | 7.5 |
| Colin Green | Lib Dems | 2,102 | 5.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Northfield Labour, toss-up
- Smethwick Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Selly Oak Labour, safe seat
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated