Birmingham Northfield
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 65% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Northfield | 30.3% | 29.2% | 22.0% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.0 | 23.1%+6.2 | 20.4%+1.6 | 10.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,073 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 80.0% |
Current member
Laurence Turner · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Turner Elected | Labour | 14,929 | 39.7 |
| Gary Sambrook | Conservative | 9,540 | 25.3 |
| Stephen Peters | Reform UK | 7,895 | 21.0 |
| Robert Grant | Green | 2,809 | 7.5 |
| Jerry Evans | Lib Dems | 1,791 | 4.8 |
| Altaf Hussain | Other | 310 | 0.8 |
| Dick Rodgers | Other | 215 | 0.6 |
| Dean Gwilliam | Other | 163 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
- Bromsgrove Conservative, toss-up
- Birmingham Selly Oak Labour, safe seat
- Smethwick Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated