Bromsgrove
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 68%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bromsgrove | 30.6% | 26.4% | 18.8% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.2 | 23.1%+3.4 | 24.3%−5.5 | 10.3%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,076 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 82.5% |
Current member
Bradley Thomas · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Thomas Elected | Conservative | 16,533 | 32.8 |
| Neena Gill | Labour | 13,517 | 26.8 |
| Glen Brampton | Reform UK | 9,584 | 19.0 |
| David Nicholl | Lib Dems | 7,391 | 14.7 |
| Talia Ellis | Green | 1,675 | 3.3 |
| Sam Ammar | Other | 1,561 | 3.1 |
| Aheesha Zahir | Other | 144 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Northfield Labour, toss-up
- Halesowen Reform UK, toss-up
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
- Smethwick Labour, safe seat
- Redditch Reform UK, toss-up
- Birmingham Selly Oak Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated