Halesowen
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 35%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halesowen | 32.9% | 27.4% | 23.3% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.9 | 24.3%+3.2 | 20.4%+2.9 | 10.4%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,196 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 76.7% |
Current member
Alex Ballinger · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ballinger Elected | Labour | 15,023 | 38.9 |
| James Morris | Conservative | 10,659 | 27.6 |
| Jonathan Oakton | Reform UK | 8,484 | 22.0 |
| Ryan Priest | Lib Dems | 2,261 | 5.9 |
| Emma Bullard | Green | 2,151 | 5.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stourbridge Reform UK, toss-up
- Dudley Reform UK, safe seat
- Smethwick Labour, safe seat
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
- Bromsgrove Conservative, toss-up
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated