Smethwick
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smethwick | 37.3% | 25.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.0 | 23.1%+2.4 | 20.4%−8.4 | 10.4%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,641 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 71.1% |
Current member
Gurinder Singh Josan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 11.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gurinder Josan Elected | Labour | 16,858 | 48.0 |
| Pete Durnell | Reform UK | 5,670 | 16.2 |
| Kate Fairhurst | Conservative | 4,546 | 13.0 |
| Roderick MacRorie | Green | 2,741 | 7.8 |
| Nahim Rubani | Other | 2,449 | 7.0 |
| Jay Anandou | Other | 1,322 | 3.8 |
| Oliver Patrick | Lib Dems | 1,018 | 2.9 |
| Christopher Graham | Other | 348 | 1.0 |
| Ravaldeep Bath | Other | 163 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
- Halesowen Reform UK, toss-up
- Birmingham Northfield Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Perry Barr Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated