Birmingham Perry Barr
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Perry Barr | 32.9% | 25.8% | 16.8% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+27.9 | 24.3%+1.6 | 23.1%−6.3 | 20.4%−9.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 122,861 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 60.3% |
Current member
Ayoub Khan · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Another party won by 3.9 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoub Khan Elected | Other | 13,303 | 35.5 |
| Khalid Mahmood | Labour | 12,796 | 34.1 |
| Garry Hickton | Conservative | 4,227 | 11.3 |
| Akshay Khuttan | Reform UK | 2,446 | 6.5 |
| Kefentse Dennis | Green | 2,440 | 6.5 |
| Sabah Hamed | Lib Dems | 1,302 | 3.5 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 509 | 1.4 |
| Shangara Singh | Other | 453 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative, toss-up
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Edgbaston Labour, safe seat
- Smethwick Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated