Birmingham Erdington
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Erdington | 32.5% | 32.0% | 14.3% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.2 | 23.1%+8.9 | 20.4%−6.1 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 123,037 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 64.5% |
Current member
Paulette Hamilton · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paulette Hamilton Elected | Labour | 14,774 | 43.3 |
| Jack Brookes | Reform UK | 7,755 | 22.7 |
| Steve Knee | Conservative | 5,402 | 15.8 |
| Karen Trench | Green | 2,452 | 7.2 |
| Shaukat Ali | Other | 2,250 | 6.6 |
| Farzana Aslam | Lib Dems | 1,128 | 3.3 |
| Corinthia Ward | Other | 376 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Birmingham Perry Barr Other, safe seat
- Sutton Coldfield Conservative, safe seat
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform UK, competitive
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated