Sutton Coldfield
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Coldfield | 36.8% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+16.4 | 23.1%+0.6 | 24.3%−0.7 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,423 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 88.2% |
Current member
Sir Andrew Mitchell · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 5.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 12.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mitchell Elected | Conservative | 18,502 | 38.3 |
| Rob Pocock | Labour | 15,959 | 33.0 |
| Mark Hoath | Reform UK | 8,213 | 17.0 |
| John Sweeney | Lib Dems | 2,587 | 5.4 |
| Ben Auton | Green | 2,419 | 5.0 |
| Wajad Burkey | Other | 653 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform UK, competitive
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Yardley Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Ladywood Labour, safe seat
- Tamworth Reform UK, safe seat
- Birmingham Perry Barr Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated